Bitcoin and the day-of-the-week effect - ScienceDirect

The Market Cycle. Anyone who read/understood this pattern sold in January.

An interesting read...

The Market Cycle Wears No Clothes
A Psychosocial Field Guide to Cryptocurrency’s Most Important Pattern
https://medium.com/@cryptology.jones/marketcycle-4e5407d0c68

Extracts from article:
"What follows is the single most important thing I learned in 12 months of intense study."
Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Stage 1: Accumulation
Stage 2: Bull Market
Stage 2, Part 2: Parabola

Stage 3: Smart Money Takes Profit

Stage 4: Bear Market
The Fifth Parabola
"Picture a financial instrument: from its inception, it has done one specific thing, and done it cyclically, four times in eight years, at ever-increasing rates of scale. Do you think Bitcoin will stop doing the thing it’s done four times in a row? The highest probability scenario is that the market cycle repeats itself a fifth time. "

...People understanding this can prepare for the next bull run, thing is we may need to drop another 20% before the bottom is in, that and most alt coins will not survive the next bull run :(


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Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20190930(Market index 27 — Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20190930(Market index 27 — Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/cj3ysjyoirp31.png?width=405&format=png&auto=webp&s=87dc996d5fae2556bc5bd1c22c6a8cceba09e286

European Banking Giant Developing Blockchain Platform And Digital Currency Payments For Transit Riders In Madrid The Municipal Transport Company of Madrid (EMT) is planning to launch a blockchain-powered application that will allow users to pay with digital currency for the company’s train and bus services across the city. Vottun, the company behind the development of the App, is one of 300 firms that submitted an application to participate in the Madrid in Motion project, which involves adding support for a digital payment system to the city’s public transportation system. To develop the payment system, the startup is partnering with Banco Santander, the fifth-largest bank in Europe. Earlier this month, Banco Santander became the first financial institution to issue an end-to-end debt-based bond on Ethereum’s public blockchain.
IRS Releases ‘Tax Cheat’ Info Raising Concerns About Crypto Theft The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released a new report and infographic on Sept 26 illustrating unpaid or underpaid taxes for the years 2011–2013. The numbers reflect estimates based on the last such findings, for the years 2008–2010. With commissioner Chuck Rettig citing the importance of voluntary compliance, and crypto’s popularity on the rise, the IRS is growing increasingly concerned with opportunities for tax evasion afforded by the new digital money.
Japanese Government To Hold Blockchain-Themed Symposium On October 7 The Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI) will hold a symposium named Next·Blockchain on October 7. This is reportedly the first time for the Japanese government to host such a blockchain-focused conference. Attendees include Chris Dai, the Long Hash CEO, Steven Pu, the Taraxa founder and CEO, Yuzo Kano, bitFlyer co-founder and CEO, etc.

Encrypted project calendar(September 30, 2019)

INS/Insolar: Insolar (INS) will be on September 30th ERD/Elrond: Elrond (ERD) will conduct main network test on September 30th NULS/NULS: The NULS team will plan to beta the ChainBOX in the third quarter. CS/Credits: Credits (CS) will exchange tokens and bug rewards in the third quarter QTUM/Qtum: Quantum Chain (QTUM) is expected to complete lightning network beta in the third quarter XEM/NEM: New World Bank (XEM) will release mobile wallet and computer wallet in the third quarter HC/HyperCash: hypercash (HC) will complete community management agreement in the third quarter

Encrypted project calendar(October 01, 2019)

HT/Huobi Token: The financial base public link jointly created by Firecoin and Nervos is expected to be open source in October. RVN/Ravencoin: Ravencoin (RVN) Ravencoin will perform a hard fork on October 1. SHND/StrongHands: StrongHands (SHND) SHND 1000: The 1st currency exchange event will be held on October 1. ADA/Cardano: Cardano (ADA) plans to hold technical consensus meeting in Amsterdam on October 1st XRC/Bitcoin Rhodium: Bitcoin Rhodium (XRC) will record account balance awards on October 1st PPC/Peercoin: Peercoin (PPC) will perform Peercoin v0.8 (code tang lang) hard fork on October 1st

Encrypted project calendar(October 02, 2019)

BNB/Binance Coin: The 2019 DELTA Summit will be held in Malta from October 2nd to 4th. The DELTA Summit is Malta’s official blockchain and digital innovation campaign. BTC/Bitcoin: The B.Tokyo 2019 conference will be held in Tokyo from October 2nd to 3rd. CAPP/Cappasity: The Cappasity (CAPP) London Science and Technology Festival will be held from October 2nd to 3rd, when the Cappasity project will be attended by the Science and Technology Festival.

Encrypted project calendar(October 03, 2019)

ETC/Ethereum Classic: The 2019 Ether Classic (ETC) Summit will be held in Vancouver on October 3–4 ANT/Aragon: Aragon (ANT) is the AGP for the new mandatory community review period, with a deadline of October 3.

Encrypted project calendar(October 04, 2019)

KNC/Kyber Network: Kyber Network (KNC) will update the maxGasPrice parameter in the Kyber Network contract from 100 gwei to 50 gwei within 2 weeks after October 4.

Encrypted project calendar(October 05, 2019)

Ontology (ONT): Ony Ji will attend the blockchain event in Japan on October 5th and explain the practical application based on the ontology network.

Encrypted project calendar(October 06, 2019)

SPND/ Spendcoin: Spendcoin (SPND) will be online on October 6th

Encrypted project calendar(October 07, 2019)

GNO/Gnosis: Gnosis (GNO) will discuss the topic “Decentralized Trading Agreement Based on Ethereum” will be held in Osaka, Japan on October 7th. Kyber and Uniswap, Gnosis and Loopring will attend and give speeches.

Encrypted project calendar(October 08, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 09, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.

Encrypted project calendar(October 10, 2019)

INB/Insight Chain: The Insight Chain (INB) INB public blockchain main network will be launched on October 10. VET/Vechain: VeChain (VET) will attend the BLOCKWALKS Blockchain Europe Conference on October 10. CAPP/Cappasity: Cappasity (CAPP) Cappasity will be present at the Osaka Global Innovation Forum in Osaka (October 10–11).

Encrypted project calendar(October 11, 2019)

OKB/OKB: OKB (OKB) OKEx series of talks will be held in Istanbul on October 11th to discuss “the rise of the Turkish blockchain.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 12, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 Global Mining Leaders Summit will be held in Chengdu, China from October 12th to 14th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 14, 2019)

BCH/Bitcoin Cash: The ChainPoint 19 conference will be held in Armenia from October 14th to 15th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 15, 2019)

RUFF/RUFF Token: Ruff will end the three-month early bird program on October 15th KAT/Kambria: Kambria (KAT) exchanges ERC20 KAT for a 10% bonus on BEP2 KAT-7BB, and the token exchange reward will end on October 15. BTC/Bitcoin: The Blockchain Technology Investment Summit (CIS) will be held in Los Angeles from October 15th to 16th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 16, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 Blockchain Life Summit will be held in Moscow, Russia from October 16th to 17th. MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on the theme of “Technology Problem Solving and Testing IoT Devices” at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on October 16. ETH/Ethereum: Ethereum launches Istanbul (Istanbul) main network upgrade, this main network upgrade involves 6 code upgrades. QTUM/Qtum: Qtum (QTUM) Qtum main network hard fork is scheduled for October 16.

Encrypted project calendar(October 18, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The SEC will give a pass on the VanEck/SolidX ETF on October 18th and make a final decision HB/HeartBout: HeartBout (HB) will officially release the Android version of the HeartBout app on October 18.

Recently, there was a minor upside correction in bitcoin above the $8,000 level against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair even climbed above the $8,200 resistance. Finally, the price spiked towards $8,400, but it failed to gain momentum. Moreover, there was no proper close above $8,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. As a result, the price started a fresh decline below the $8,000 support.
It even broke the $7,700 level and traded to a new monthly low at $7,661. Besides, the current price action is bearish, with an immediate resistance near the $7,900 level. Additionally, 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,157 high to $7,661 low is also near the $7,900 level. The main resistance on the upside is near the $8,000 and $8,100 levels. More importantly, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $8,050 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
An intermediate resistance is near the $8,040 level, plus the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,157 high to $7,661 low. Therefore, an upside break above the $8,000 and $8,100 levels is must for a decent recovery in bitcoin. The next key resistance is near the $8,400 level.
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US Futures Jump On Fresh Hopes For China Trade Deal, Dovish Powell Speech

In a generally quiet overnight session, renewed hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations at the upcoming G20 summit helped global shares rise to a one-week high on Wednesday, though lingering fears of a no-deal outcome weighed on European bourses. U.S. futures rose, extending on Tuesday's rebound and tracking gains in Asia as investors rekindled their risk appetite before a key speech by Fed chair Powell who many hope will reverse yesterday's hawkish rhetoric by Clarida, and come off as dovish, especially after this morning's report that Steve Mnuchin has been pushing for a shift from hiking rates to balance sheet reduction. The dollar and Treasuries were steady.

While President Donald Trump talked tough on the trade tariffs issue ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, markets focused on comments by White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who held open the possibility that the two countries would reach a trade deal. Kudlow’s comments helped Wall Street close higher and allowed Chinese and Japanese shares to rally 1% as the MSCI index of Asian shares ex-Japan gained 0.7%.
The mood however fizzled into the European session, with the pan-European index giving up opening gains to trade flat and Germany’s DAX trading unchanged. Technology companies and retailers were the best performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which struggled to maintain early gains as a Tuesday report that Trump may soon decide about new taxes on imported cars, still weighed on sentiment, keeping Europe’s auto sector shares 0.6 percent in the red.

"An expectation is being priced into markets ahead of the G20 meeting that we will see some deal or at least a framework for a deal between Trump and (Chinese President) Xi Jinping,” said Bernd Berg, global macro strategist at Switzerland-based Woodman Asset Management. “But if they come out with nothing this weekend, it’s going to be very bad."
Traders are also focusing on a speech at 12pm ET by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see if he offers clues on how many more times the Fed could raise interest rates, following yesterday's modestly hawkish if cautious take from vice chair Clarida.
While Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida took a less dovish stance on Tuesday than some had expected and backed more rate rises, Powell and his colleagues have in recent weeks alluded to global volatility, leading many to speculate the bank’s three-year-long rate rise campaign could pause in 2019.
Continued uncertainty over global trade as well as Brexit and Italy’s ongoing conflict with the European Union, have supported the U.S. dollar, which rose to a two-week high and approached the highest level hit in 2018.
While the main driver for the greenback is the U.S. interest rate path, Rodrigo Catril, senior strategist at National Australia Bank, said it was also benefiting from the uncertain mood. “Markets seem to be jumping at shadows at the moment and against this backdrop of uncertainty, the dollar remains the preferred option for weathering the storm,” Catril said.
Investors are also monitoring developments in Italy’s row with the EU over its budget spending, with Germany’s Handelsblatt and Italy’s La Stampa quoting EU commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis as saying the draft budget needed “substantial correction”.
The 10-year Treasury yield drifted ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech as European bonds nudged higher and the Euro was range bound. Italian bond yields flatlined after sharp rallies that were triggered by what appeared to be a more conciliatory stance from the government over the issue.
The dollar was mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers, trading in narrow ranges ahead of key events this week and EUUSD hovered below 1.1300; Treasuries were little changed with the 10-year yield at 3.05%. Sweden’s krona gained even after retail sales and an economic tendency survey missed estimates. The pound trimmed some of the previous session’s losses as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May appeared to back down in a key Brexit battle with Parliament.
Brent crude handed back earlier gains to trade little changed. Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) are lower heading into the US open after initially trading positive. A larger than expected build in API crude stockpiles of +3.453mln compared to the expected build of +0.8mln had little impact on the price rebound at the time which instead focused on the larger than expected gasoline draw. Additionally, three North Sea forties crude cargoes which were scheduled to load in December have been cancelled due to the temporary closure of the 150,000 BPD capacity Buzzard oilfield. Saudi Energy minister Al Falih stated this morning that Saudi will not and cannot reduce output on their own, and is hopeful that upcoming meetings will result in agreement to stabilise the market.
Gold is slightly lower as the dollar continues to firm, although the yellow metal has rebounded from lows of USD 1211.3/oz in the previous session. Separately, copper is higher following a 3-session decline although, gains for the metal have been restricted by ongoing US-China tensions, with the most recent comments coming from White House Economic Advisor Kudlow saying that US President Trump is prepared to raise tariffs if G20 talks are not constructive.
On other markets, cryptocurrency bitcoin jumped 6 percent to above $4,000, its biggest one day jump since the summer, and extending its rebound from a low of $3,475 touched on Sunday.
Today's expected data include mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, and new home sales. Burlington Stores, Royal Bank of Canada, Tiffany, and Weibo are among companies reporting earnings.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Asian equity markets traded mostly positive following a similar lead from Wall St. but with the session initially mired by lingering uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) outperformed as the index coat-tailed on the recent advances in USD/JPY, while ASX 200 (-0.1%) was subdued by weakness in miners after the metals complex felt the brunt of the recent USD strength and with financials subdued by AMP Capital amid risk of further mischarging cases and provisions. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) were higher but with price action choppy in early trade amid tentativeness heading into the Trump-Xi showdown at this week’s G20 and as participants mulled over various comments from officials including White House Economic Adviser Kudlow who affirmed that Trump could hike tariffs if no constructive talks occur at G20 and that the White House is disappointed in China's response to the trade issue. However, Kudlow also noted that Trump is open to a deal with China and there were recent comments from China’s Vice Premier Liu that China wants a negotiated solution on trade based on mutual respect. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened amid a lacklustre tone in T-note futures and with the BoJ’s presence in the bond market overshadowed by the outperformance of Japanese stocks. China's US envoy said selling or reducing purchases of US Treasuries would be very dangerous like playing with fire, while the envoy doesn't think anybody in Beijing is seriously thinking about pulling back from US Treasury debt market should tensions worsen. Furthermore, there were reports that China’s Ambassador to the US warned of dire consequences if the trade war leads to economic separation and that China prefers a negotiated solution, while the Ambassador warned that China will retaliate in proportion to any US sanctions regarding Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.
Top Asian News - Bank of Thailand Minutes Signal an Interest-Rate Hike Is Coming - Furor Over Gene-Altered Babies Deepens With China Project Halted - Pakistan’s Umar Says No Hurry for IMF Deal as Talks Resume - Turkey Sinks to Last on Emerging-Market Scorecard; Malaysia Tops - Brookfield Is Said to Be in Talks to Invest in Dubai’s Meraas
In a slightly choppy session thus far, European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%) have held on to opening gains seen in the wake of the upbeat US and Asia-Pac sessions, despite lingering trade concerns. The most recent interjection came from White House Economic Adviser Kudlow who commented that Trump is open to a deal with China and that the raising of tariffs to 25% is not a "certainty" but will be implemented if no constructive talks occur at the G20. In terms of sector specifics, IT names are the clear outperformers at this stage of the session with Wirecard (+1.3%) and Dialog Semiconductor (+3.1%) notable gainers in the tech-space after trying to recoup recent losses with not much else in the way of key newsflow. Noteworthy individual movers include EDF (+3.1%) with shares buoyed by reports that that a potential increase in the French government’s stake in the Co. would take place next year. To the downside, Tenaris (-8.2%), sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Co.’s chairman was indicted in a graft case, whilst Continental shares (-5.4%) have been weighed on by negative comments from Redburn who have warned over the group’s EBIT prospects in 2019.
Top European News
In FX, the DXY was off bet levels but retaining an underlying bid with supportive month end flows alongside HIA and SOMA redemption (24.9bln comes due on Friday) all impacting, while market participants keep a close eye on Fed Chair Powell’s speech scheduled for later today where he may stop the USD in its tracks or exacerbate the rally. The index has gained more ground above 97.000 to just over 97.500 before losing some momentum but still on the course to challenge the YTD high at 97.693, technically if not fundamentally. EUR: more choppy trade for the single currency with EUUSD trading around the middle of a 1.1267-1.1304 range having taken out stops at 1.1275. Italian politics keep weighing on the currency with the European Commission unimpressed as it will begin disciplinary actions on Italy regarding debt before Christmas. EU Commissioner Dombrovskis also added that a cut of 0.2% of the 2019 budget target is not enough. EUUSD is being drawn towards a large amount of option expiries between 1.1275 – 1.1300 (1.5bln). Looking ahead, markets will be keeping a close eye on the budget discussion between the Italian PM, two Deputy PM and Finance Minister for any hints of a budge towards EC’s direction. CAD – Another victim of the USD strength and global trade jitters as Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow said the USMCA agreement is to be signed on Friday at the G20 summit, but sticking points remain in regards to dairy. Note, choppy oil prices have hardly helped the Loonie slide to fresh multi-month lows around 1.3330. JPY ­ - Edging closer to 114.00 vs. the buck with heavy option expiries around 113.50-55 (1.47bln) and 114.00 (1.9bln). EM – Mostly weaker as the greenback hold firm with RUB as the standout underperformer amid the ongoing escalation between Russia and Ukraine, though Germany and France stated they are against stricter Russian sanctions for now, while there were witness reports of a Russian minesweeper ship heading towards the Sea of Azov share by Russia and Ukraine. On the flip side, the Russian Central Bank governor emerged earlier with a hawkish tilt whilst keeping options open for the next meeting. Note, USD/RUB is at 67.4000.
In commodities, Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) are lower heading into the US open after initially trading positive. A larger than expected build in API crude stockpiles of +3.453mln compared to the expected build of +0.8mln had little impact on the price rebound at the time. Additionally, three North Sea forties crude cargoes which were scheduled to load in December have been cancelled due to the temporary closure of the 150,000 BPD capacity Buzzard oilfield. Saudi Energy minister Al Falih stated this morning that Saudi will not and cannot reduce output on their own, and is hopeful that upcoming meetings will result in agreement to stabilise the market. Gold is slightly lower as the dollar continues to firm, although the yellow metal has rebounded from lows of USD 1211.3/oz in the previous session. Separately, copper is higher following a 3-session decline although, gains for the metal have been restricted by ongoing US-China tensions, with the most recent comments coming from White House Economic Advisor Kudlow saying that US President Trump is prepared to raise tariffs if G20 talks are not constructive.
Looking at the day ahead, the focus for the market is likely to be squarely with Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Away from that we also have the second revision of Q3 GDP in the US where no change from the +3.5% qoq saar estimate is expected. The October advance goods trade balance reading should also be closely watched with the consensus expecting a widening in the deficit to $77bn from $76bn last month. Also due out in the US will be October new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index print. It is another busy day for ECB speakers however with Coeure, Guindos and Praet all due to speak. The BoE’s Carney will also speak at the Financial Stability Report press conference this afternoon when we will also get the latest annual bank stress test results.
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
One thing I haven’t heard much about this year is a Santa Claus rally but the US has now had two up days in a row for the first time since mid month so maybe Santa is trying to get some momentum going. In fact given the conviction with which markets have moved in recent weeks, yesterday was a actually a rare calmer day with US equities opening lower but floating upward into their close. The S&P 500 ended +0.33% despite opening down -0.66%, while the DOW gained +0.44% and the NASDAQ closed flat. Attention continues to focus on this weekend’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. The White House’s top economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed today that the two leaders will have dinner on Saturday night at the G-20 in Buenos Aires. He said that “there is a good possibility that we can make a deal” and “I don’t want to go overboard, but he [Trump] has indicated some optimism.” So hopes are continuing to build, and emerging market equities, which would benefit from a benign trade outcome, outperformed yesterday gaining +0.70%.
Apple continues to struggle and traded -0.22% lower yesterday as concerns continue regarding the company’s demand outlook and possible tariffs on components for their goods. Notably, Microsoft overtook it to become the world’s largest company by market cap again for the first time since October 2003! The last time Microsoft was larger than Apple was back in May 2010 (though at that time, Exxon Mobile was larger than either of the tech giants). Since Apple peaked in early October, it has shed around $300 billion of market cap, while Microsoft has shed ‘only’ $60 billion, or the equivalent of Pakistan’s GDP to the equivalent of Panama’s respectively. So in 7 weeks Apple has lost the entire annual GDP of a country with 197 million people in terms of market cap.
Europe struggled after an early positive open to close slightly lower across the board with the STOXX 600 ending -0.26%. Part of the reason for the dip in Europe seemed to lie with a story in the German business magazine WirtschaftsWoche (WiWo) which reported that President Trump may, as soon as next week, impose tariffs on cars imported into the US. However the details of the story appeared vague with the source also referencing “EU circles,” while the EU later rebutted the story. That said, autos lagged the wider market in the STOXX 600 yesterday with the sector down -2.52% with EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom also repeating the warning of the risk of US tariffs on cars.
Making much less of impact on markets yesterday than his speech from two weeks ago were the comments from Fed Vice-Chair Clarida. It’s hard to argue that there was much new information for the market with many of his points a rehash from the October speech. Interestingly, there was no mention of financial conditions, global growth, or recent market volatility which is perhaps a touch hawkish at the margin, as it potentially signals the Fed isn’t hugely concerned about recent developments. Also, Clarida had previously outlined both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, but yesterday he dropped his reference to the downside scenario. The flip side however was Clarida’s mention that market- and survey-based measures of inflation expectations had slipped and also that, with an uncertain r-star, the Fed should infer its level from incoming market and economic data. Treasuries appeared fairly nonfussed though with 10-year yields moving as much as +1.8bps higher but quickly snapping back before ending the session close to flat at 3.055%. The USD index gained +0.31%. Later in the session, Chicago Fed President Evans highlighted that inflation is at target and said he favours getting policy back to neutral. The market did not react, but his comments are significant as he will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2019. His most recent vote was a dissent against the rate hike in December 2017.
Staying with the Fed, today the baton passes to Fed Chair Powell when he speaks at the Economic Club of New York at 5pm GMT on “The Federal Reserve’s framework for monitoring financial stability.” Our US economists previously highlighted that they expect Powell to reiterate the Fed’s plan to get back to neutral. However, since Powell has previously emphasized that neutral is highly uncertain, they are also watching for any hints that Powell sees recent market developments and/or slower activity in rate sensitive sectors like housing and capex as evidence that neutral could be lower than previously thought.
This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with Nikkei (+0.96%), Hang Seng (+0.91%), Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Kospi (+0.30%) all up with a rally largely driven by technology shares. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (+0.03%) are pointing towards a flat start.
Moving on. Yesterday’s slew of data in the US was unlikely to move the dial for policy makers much at the Fed. The S&P CoreLogic National Home Price Index rose 0.33% mom and 5.15% yoy on a seasonally adjusted basis, roughly in line with expectations. The FHFA purchase only house price index rose +0.2%, the third weakest month since January 2015. Higher interest rates and tax changes continue to weigh on the housing sector. On the other hand, consumer confidence and the labour market continue to look strong, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index printing at 135.7 as expected, down 2.2pts but near its multi-decade high. The labour market subindex rose to 34.4, a new cycle high.
In other news, the daily Italy update consisted of another comment from the League suggesting that the deficit could be lowered to the 2.2% to 2.3% range, this time from Armando Siri. Reuters also reported that EU government delegates are today expected to back the EC’s disciplinary move against Italy, however a formal disciplinary proceeding may not begin until February. Also out yesterday was an MNI article suggesting that the ECB might be willing to consider OMT as an option for Italy should spreads come under further pressure. The story did appear to be rightly ignored by the market however, especially considering that OMT is conditional on an ESM programme. We are not close to being there yet, even if our head of research David Folkerts-Landau believes that the ESM and structural reforms will need to eventually be negotiated together in a grand bargain to deal with the Italian problem (see the op-ed here from David).
After a good run, BTPs were slightly weaker yesterday with two-year yields closing +3.3bps higher and 10-year yields +2.0bps. As we go to print Italian daily Corriere Della Sera reported PM Conte as saying that dealing with the EU over the budget wont be easy while adding that Italy will push ahead with reforms as social stability is more important for Italy. Elsewhere, the EC VP Dombrovskis said in an interview with La Stampa that Italy needs a “significant correction” of its budget. Indeed as we’re pressing the send button HB is reporting that the EU will open deficit procedures before Christmas. So the pressure is still high even if the news flow has improved of late.
Over to Brexit, where Prime Minister May continues to try to sell her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to the public and to lawmakers. The leader of the DUP, Arlene Foster, said yesterday that “as far as I can see, this [deal] is not going through parliament” and the pound dropped -0.73% versus the dollar, as passage looks less and less likely and a hangover from the Trump comments the previous night on it being a better deal for the EU and that it precludes a UK/US free trade deal percolated. Nevertheless, a reminder that we turned bullish on the pound on Monday due to two key factors: first, the Government will allow amendments during the legislation process, and second, Labour has signaled their willingness to work through the amendment channel rather than try to topple the government. Together, these ingredients should enable the ‘soft Brexit’ majority in Parliament to coalesce around a non-disruptive exit plan. Voting on the motion to accept or reject the Brexit deal will start in the House of Commons at 7 p.m. on December 11 but the “Meaningful Vote” debate will start on December 4. There will be five days of 8hrs debate, each led by a different cabinet minister. So we may get an idea of potential amendments from next week.
As far as the day ahead is concerned, as noted earlier the focus for the market is likely to be squarely with Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Away from that we also have the second revision of Q3 GDP in the US where no change from the +3.5% qoq saar estimate is expected. The October advance goods trade balance reading should also be closely watched with the consensus expecting a widening in the deficit to $77bn from $76bn last month. Also due out in the US will be October new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index print. This morning in Europe it’s quiet with December consumer confidence in Germany and the October M3 money supply reading for the Euro Area the only data due. It is another busy day for ECB speakers however with Coeure, Guindos and Praet all due to speak. The BoE’s Carney will also speak at the Financial Stability Report press conference this afternoon when we will also get the latest annual bank stress test results.
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Wednesday December 14th Pre-Market Stock Movers & News

Good morning traders of the StockMarket sub! Happy Fed Wednesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news for today-

(FULL SOURCE)

Frontrunning: December 14

STOCK FUTURES NOW:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING DISCUSSIONS:

  • SGYP
  • ONVO
  • XON
  • JOY
  • MSFT
  • CXO
  • MITT
  • ACN
  • REPH
  • SAGE
  • IBM
  • ABM
  • BAC
  • NDSN
  • NKE
  • JNJ
  • QCOM
  • GILD
  • INTC
  • AMGN
  • SKM
  • BLBD
  • PIR
  • LGF

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS: JOY, ESRX, NVDA, FOXA, WFC, HTZ, GOOGL, JNJ, GS, UPS, FDX, VRX

(source: cnbc.com)
Joy Global — The mining equipment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 17 cents per share, matching estimates, while revenue fell short of analysts' forecasts as the commodity price slump continues to impact Joy Global's customers.

STOCK SYMBOL: JOY

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Express Scripts — The pharmacy benefits manager reaffirmed its adjusted 2017 earnings guidance, and raised its overall outlook stemming from tax benefits related to its disposition of its PolyMedica unit. It is also revising its methodology for reporting network claims.

STOCK SYMBOL: ESRX

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Nvidia — Evercore upgraded the graphics chipmaker's stock to "buy" from "hold," even after a 181 percent year-to-date run up, noting that 2017 should be another good year for AI-related offerings.

STOCK SYMBOL: NVDA

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21st Century Fox — Brean Capital upgraded the media company's stock to "buy" from "hold," saying the sell-off following Fox's bid to buy the rest of Britain's Sky was overdone.

STOCK SYMBOL: FOXA

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Wells Fargo — Regulators imposed new sanctions on the bank because of deficiencies in its "living will" plan should it ever find itself on the verge of bankruptcy. It's the first time penalties have been imposed on a bank since the "living will" provisions were created by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

STOCK SYMBOL: WFC

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Hertz Global — Hertz announced the retirement of Chief Executive Officer John Tague, as well as the departure of three of the car rental company's longest serving board members. Former GE executive Kathryn Marinello was chosen as the new CEO, an appointment that was endorsed by investor Carl Icahn, the largest Hertz shareholder.

STOCK SYMBOL: HTZ

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Alphabet — Alphabet's Google unit is reportedly racing to hire more conservatives for its lobbying arm, according to Reuters, after years of enjoying President Barack Obama's support and positioning itself for a Hillary Clinton presidency.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

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Johnson & Johnson — Johnson & Johnson has dropped is bid for Swiss drugmaker Actelion. However, Actelion confirmed it is in talks about a "strategic transaction," with both Reuters and Dow Jones reporting that France's Sanofi is the company talking with Actelion.

STOCK SYMBOL: JNJ

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Goldman Sachs — Goldman is reportedly planning to announce the elevations of investment banking head David Solomon and chief financial officer Harvey Schwartz to be CEO Lloyd Blankfein's top lieutenants. The announcement could come as soon as today, following the announced departure of Gary Cohn to join the Trump administration. CNBC has previously reported the impending elevation of Solomon.

STOCK SYMBOL: GS

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General Motors — GM asked the Supreme Court to overturn an earlier ruling that its 2009 bankruptcy filing did not shield it from lawsuits related to its faulty ignition switches. The switches have been linked to 124 deaths and 275 injuries.

STOCK SYMBOL: GM

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United Parcel Service, FedEx — UPS and FedEx are both struggling to keep up with the surge in holiday orders, according to a Wall Street Journal article. The paper said shipping volumes have surged past expectations and delayed some of the millions of orders that have been placed since Thanksgiving.

STOCK SYMBOL: UPS

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STOCK SYMBOL: FDX

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Valeant — The drugmaker's shares could come under pressure following news that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square sold some of its stake in the drugmaker to generate a loss for tax purposes. The sale lowered Pershing's stake to 7.8 percent from 9 percent.

STOCK SYMBOL: VRX

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DISCLOSURE:

bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?

Hope you all have a wonderful trading day ahead here on this Wednesday December the 14th! :)

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